By falling to No. 4, Oklahoma gets a huge break by facing No. 1 Clemson
The final results are in: No.1 Clemson will play No. 4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl while No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Michigan State will face off in the Cotton Bowl. And if you are a fan of the Sooners, you should be relieved Oklahoma fell. Why? Because now the Sooners get get to face the weakest team in the field.
Clemson had a sparkling resume, going 13-0 with a convincing win over North Carolina in the ACC championship game. It is a record that, according to ESPN’s FPI, would only be achieved by an average top-25 team 2.1 percent of the time.
Clemson: No. 1 in final CFP rankings.
An average top 25 team would have 2.1% chance to go 13-0 against @Clemson_FB’s schedule.
However, the Tigers aren’t as impressive as they look. According to the Simple Rating System, which adjusts margin of victory for strength of schedule, Clemson was the fourth best team in the country, 18.45 points per game better than average. Oklahoma, by comparison, was third with an SRS of 20.52. In other words, we would expect Oklahoma to beat Clemson by two points on a neutral field.
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ESPN’s FPI, which represents how many points above or below average a team is, has Clemson No. 6 (21.3 FPI) and Oklahoma No. 1 (27.9). That means Oklahoma would again be favored by at least two points over any other team on a neutral field, Clemson included.
Oklahoma: No. 4 in final CFP rankings.@OU_Football: 1st in ESPN FPI, would be favored by at least 2 pts vs any other team on neutral field
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 6, 2015And those same FPI numbers put Clemson’s chances at winning a national championship at 17 percent, at least half of Oklahoma (39 percent) and Alabama (33 percent).
The oddsmakers in Vegas also agree, installing Oklahoma as a 3-point favorite.
Movement already in the CFP playoff @LVSuperBook. Alabama is now -9.5 vs MSU and Oklahoma is -3 vs Clemson.
— Mitch Moss (@MitchMossRadio) December 6, 2015Why the apparent disrespect for Clemson? A defense that looks better than it is.
Clemson held UNC’s star running back Elijah Hood to 65 yards and limited quarterback Marquise Williams to a 33 percent completion rate, but this unit was still only 7.0 points per game above average, the lowest among the four playoff teams.
Here’s why this hurts the Tigers.
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According to The Fremeau Efficiency Index, Field Value Efficiency — the scoring value generated by a team’s starting field position, non-offensive turnovers and scores per possession — Clemson ranks 108th out of 128 teams while Oklahoma ranks 19th. The Sooners also have a better net starting field position (plus-3.2 vs. minus-3.8) and a lower percentage of short-field drives allowed (9.7 percent vs. 12.3 percent).
The Clemson offense, as efficient and proficient as it was, ranks 15th in opponent-adjusted drive efficiency while Oklahoma ranks 12th. So with two offenses almost identical in terms of adjusted output, Oklahoma gets the nod due to their superior defense.
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